India is hit by a triple whammy

We’re in a world that’s economically multipolar, however militarily unipolar, says the previous Indian diplomat.

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Shivshankar Menon was India’s Nationwide Safety Adviser  from 2010 to 2014. Beforehand he served because the nation’s Overseas Secretary (2006-2009), Excessive Commissioner to Pakistan (2004-2006), and Sri Lanka (1997-2000) and ambassador to China (2000-2003) and Israel.

A serious milestone of Menon’s profession was the landmark Indo-US nuclear deal, which was signed when he was the overseas secretary. He has additionally written a e-book, Decisions: Inside The Making Of Indian Overseas Coverage, first printed in 2016.

Right here in dialog with Frank Islam, Menon talks about international challenges confronted by India in a world hit by a triple whammy — a crashed financial system, a covid-induced large well being disaster and a change in stability of energy with China difficult the primacy of the U.S. —  and the Indian diaspora’s position in strengthening India-US relations.

The interview, initially streamed by the South Asia Monitor, has been edited for readability.

You’ve been India’s Overseas Secretary in addition to the Nationwide Secretary Advisor below Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. How do you see India’s international standing right this moment? Has the panorama modified for higher or worse because you have been the secretary? And in addition are you able to mirror on India’s present overseas affairs technique, together with the present financial disaster that the nation is in?

Nicely, my very own method is that, sure, the world has modified very essentially; and each time the world round us has shifted principally, we have now needed to alter our overseas coverage. In 1989, the Chilly Battle ended. Fairly quickly, the Soviet Union collapsed. We revised most of our overseas coverage truly, and began altering the way in which we handled the world. As soon as the globalization decade began, we began reworking our relationship with the U.S., and this was finished by all political events in India, and, within the U.S., it was finished it was bipartisan [manner]. In India, it wasn’t only one celebration or the opposite. [Prime Minister P.V.] Narasimha Rao might need began, it however [Prime Minister Atal Bihari] Vajpayee noticed it by way of and Manmohan Singh did the civil nuclear [agreement]. For me, when the setting adjustments, you must alter what you’re doing. And we have now finished that efficiently at every stage.

This time, we’re in an actual part transformation. We’re hit by a triple whammy. The world financial system has crashed; you’ve Covid, you’ve an enormous well being disaster; however you even have a basic shift within the stability of energy, which has been occurring for the previous couple of years, the place you see a possible challenger to the U.S. primacy, in China. And also you see this rising competitors — competition — between China and the U.S. All this requires a really completely different Indian response from what we used to do, in I say my time… as you stated Dr Manmohan Singh’s time, in Mr. Vajpayee’s time. So and that’s the place I feel it’s laborious to do as a result of we’re between [world] orders. Right this moment, if you happen to have a look at the world, we have been in a unipolar world. Right this moment we’re in a world the place the world financial system is multipolar — energy is unfold. Militarily, it’s nonetheless unipolar. The U.S. is the only real superpower. The one nation who can mission energy all over the world right this moment is the U.S. So it’s nonetheless unipolar army. Politically it’s completely confused. And what Covid has finished is, it has diminished all people’s popularity, energy and financial standing. Everyone is now struggling to get their financial system going once more, standing, create jobs. Most individuals’s response to this a lot more durable setting overseas is to say, “We’ll flip inwards, we’ll turn into extra self-reliant, we’ll do it ourselves.” However the reality is we are able to’t remedy these issues alone. We have to work with our companions, with our associates… You may see the distinction; within the final 10 years, within the final 20 years truly, India’s relations with the U.S. have improved tremendously; with Japan, with we’re searching for, with ASEAN, and truly that goes again to Narasimha Rao… So we adjusted coverage, we emphasised financial diplomacy, however right this moment once more we have now massive selections to make, and we have now to decide on. Right this moment the world financial system is being damaged into fragments, you understand, RCEP [Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership], TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership] in Asia, and there’s a USMCA [U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement], or the successor of Nafta in North America, and the EU in Europe. Aand each is changing into extra protectionist. India did effectively out of a globalized financial system. That’s once we grew quickest, once we pulled 140 million individuals out of poverty in 10 years. That was the time once we actually did effectively. So for us, we don’t desire a fragmented damaged down world, which is rising far more slowly. It’s a lot tougher for us to develop, remodel. So we’ll alter, and I feel we’ll. However we’re nonetheless within the strategy of deciding. So… that’s what worries me, once we stroll away from RCEP and once we begin elevating customs duties for 4 years operating… It’s one factor to say self-reliance when you have interaction with the world, it’s one other factor to say self-reliance — I’m going to close myself off. And you’ve got each forms of individuals in India right this moment.

You’ve been ambassador to each China and Pakistan, India’s two principal adversaries now. How critical is a risk to India’s safety due to the Sino-Indian border dispute? Additionally I need to ask you, do you see brighter horizon in easing the stress between India and Pakistan?

I do assume that what’s occurring on the India-China border is critical, as a result of we’ve by no means been on this state of affairs earlier than — not for a really very long time. We haven’t had deaths for a really very long time. Now we do. We’ve had firing… So whereas each side are saying the best factor — the overseas ministers met in Moscow. Either side say they need disengagement, they need peace and tranquility. However till peace is definitely assured on that border, it’s, for me, the most important challenge that we should be coping with. And it’s one thing that we have to fear about and I feel the Chinese language needs to be worrying about it as effectively. However let’s see, that’s nonetheless an open query, the place it should result in. We’ve been by way of comparable durations up to now. However up to now we’ve all the time negotiated our means out of it and each side have truly both pulled again or whoever has moved ahead has moved again and so on, and we discovered methods out of it.

Now, in the previous couple of years, China’s relationship with Pakistan has additionally turn into a lot tighter. The China-Pakistan financial hall, $62 billion {dollars} pumped in. Additionally China now has a presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, on what we think about Indian territory. So that truly now adjustments the character of China’s dedication. She now has a stake in persevering with the current state of affairs — which means Pakistani occupation. And that makes a giant distinction to it. So, sure, the issues are linked. But it surely appears to me that the standard Indian means of coping with that is to attempt to deal with the problems immediately bilaterally, with every of those; is to take care of these points we are able to with Pakistan, with Pakistan; to take care of these points which we are able to with China, with China; take care of them bilaterally, take care of them immediately and transfer on. I imply don’t cooperate the place you may, compete the place you have to, and in case you have unimaginable points, discover a means of managing them.

Very effectively stated…

… and that frankly is the way in which, for me, the way in which ahead. In case you pay attention rigorously to what [Exterbak Affairs Minister] Jaishankar is saying, in some ways, what he’s saying continues to be what earlier governments used to say. In fact, every authorities desires to say, “I’m new, I’m very completely different, I’m higher.” That’s regular, that’s politics; you understand democratic politics. However the reality is I do consider that, by way of precise apply, we’re nonetheless attempting that. Whether or not it should work, I don’t know. As a result of Pakistan’s personal situation, I feel, doesn’t assist regular relations with India. And we appear to have labored ourselves right into a state of affairs the place a measured, managed stage of hostility with India appears to go well with those that have actual energy in Pakistan, the military. And if it fits them then, that’s… however management, I imply they don’t need to lose. However they want sufficient to justify their management at house, and so on. That’s the place we appear to be.

I’d hope there’s an curiosity between India and Pakistan to [maintain peace] as a result of they’ve a border. They principally reside collectively. They’re the identical individuals. Earlier than the partition, they was once a part of India. They need to discover a widespread floor and stand on their floor to work collectively as a result of all of them have shared targets and share accountability.

You see I used to be fortunate I used to be despatched to Pakistan by Mr. Vajpayee, when, in what have been most likely the perfect years we’ve had in a few years. I used to be there from 2003 to 2006, when, you understand, in December 2004, I keep in mind 18,000 Pakistani faculty youngsters got here to India for the winter, stayed with Indian households, went house. You already know you open journey, you open commerce — we opened. And we began the bus [service between] Muzaffarabad [and Srinagar in 2005]. So that you don’t need to persuade me of this… However I do assume that you understand we have to work, no less than, to indicate the Pakistani individuals the advantages of peace that’s the very effectively stated as a result of I like the way in which we’re not enemies with the Pakistan individuals the advantages of peace.

That’s very effectively stated…

We aren’t enemies of the Pakistani individuals, we don’t have an issue with them; we don’t have an issue with Pakistani enterprise. Pakistani enterprise is able to do enterprise.

And they need to…

And they need to, and we should always, too. Even civilian politicians, it’s just some who’ve opinions that are perhaps very retrograde… And for me, subsequently it’s essential that we section coverage — that we truly take care of individuals relying on whether or not there’s a actual downside there or not. However we shouldn’t simply lump our downside with the Pakistan military, or the ISI, on all Pakistanis. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Nicely, however the present authorities appears to be geared… motivated by having not the dialog, however having the struggle, as a result of that’s how they get the votes sadly.

Nicely, that’s once I say that it appears to go well with those that have energy that they’ve some stage of hostility. That’s that unlucky however sadly true.

You’re quoted as having stated, “India has misplaced the flexibility to be a contemporary nation.” You additionally stated that India is remoted. Are you able to elaborate on this thought? Additionally do you continue to assume that India is a worldwide beacon of hope, democracy, range and secularism? Are you able to mirror in your ideas additionally on the Kashmir challenge, the CAB, the human rights, the liberty of press and the liberty of faith in India, which has been a significant discuss inside the Biden overseas coverage staff?

It appears to me that the Indian experiment of attempting to remodel India right into a affluent, robust, trendy nation, whereas being a democracy, which is and on this scale, I feel, this has international significance and other people have all the time acknowledged that. It clearly has large significance for us in India, nevertheless it’s nonetheless an experiment. I feel we have now to additionally acknowledge that even after 70 years, which is…

We’re nonetheless experimenting our personal democracy after 250 years…

And that’s not a foul factor as a result of it implies that we’re rising, we’re evolving, we’re adapting to vary, to new issues. That’s good. I imply I’ve no downside with that. However, in our case, I feel loads of the friction that you simply see now in India and issues that you simply talked about, you understand, the agitation concerning the CAA, et cetera, the NRC, human rights, many of those are precisely the place  those who friction on the edges is. And it’s attention-grabbing that it’s modified its kind fully. Within the ’50s and ’60s, we fearful about separatism. You fearful about revolution. I imply you began with Telangana up in arms. You fearful about a complete completely different set of points. Right this moment you’re worrying about social inclusion. It’s truly you’re worrying about inequality, which is a results of speedy development and unequal development. Some individuals have clearly finished significantly better. Right this moment, you’re worrying about social points, that are very completely different from earlier than. And as NSA, I used to say if you happen to have a look at us this century, all of the parameters of violence in India have truly declined steadily. And that is nonetheless true. You have a look at terrorism, have a look at deaths by separatism, you have a look at all these — all these have gone down, besides two issues have gone up. And people are the harmful ones: one is communal violence, that’s deaths by communal violence. The opposite is crimes in opposition to the individual. That is social violence. This contains issues like rape and so forth, which suggests a society in some sort of ferment, and a few sort of change. So now these aren’t issues that the standard state, or conventional policing, conventional safety is nice at. We’re not good at coping with society. These are social points. Society has to kind them out. And what we’re seeing on the streets, or what we see by way of violence is basically the explosion of that. And that’s the stage that we’re at. It worries me actually, however I however general I’m nonetheless an optimist. I feel we are able to deal with it, however a part of it’s as a result of we’ve modified so quick, so many individuals have out of the blue come out of conventional, they not have their household, their clan, their village, their conventional individuals’s assist methods. They’re now alone, nameless in a metropolis, fully uncovered because of social media, telephones, and so on, ICT [information communication technology] to a complete new world on the market. And, subsequently, you get shifts in politics — politics turns into far more emotional, far more a query of mass mobilization. As a result of the means exists and the inhabitants can also be now comparatively [young] — you’ve a younger new ruthless inhabitants — you have a look at politics, each normal election 140 million new voters, that’s not a small quantity, 140 million. It shifts the character of what occurs in society in basic methods. So I feel we have to get used to that and deal with it. I’m certain we’ll. But it surely’s not going to be straightforward. There might be friction within the course of.

You additionally want the management to convey the individuals collectively…

Appropriate.

The Indo-United States relationship after the uselection, relying on who’s elected, however sounds just like the ballot reveals that Biden is forward. Do you consider the India U.S. relationship below Biden will embody much more commerce, commerce funding? Additionally you see the Biden will promote the inclusive democracy and equitable society, as you talked about, which is according to the values of America’s democracy, character and conscience?

Mr. Biden has been a pal of India for a very long time. When he was within the Senate Overseas Relations committee, as an example…

He was the chairman…

He was the chairman once we did the nuclear deal. He got here to India as vp. He has a household connection which fits all the way in which again, truly.

I didn’t know that.

There are Bidens in Chennai, there have been. Began in Chennai however there have been Bidens from, I feel, from the 19th century. And there was, there are nonetheless some Bidens in Mumbai. It’s from the East India Firm, all the way in which again. I feel in India there’s an amazing quantity of goodwill for him, as a person and expectations of anyone who selected a vice presidential candidate, who [is] partly Indian origin. I feel that made a big impact all through the nation. It appears to me even if you happen to have a look at it purely from the actual politic viewpoint, India and the U.S. have increasingly in widespread. And that congruence that’s rising goes to continue to grow. So I’d anticipate each nations to do far more collectively within the years to come back. I feel it is a relationship which is able to truly do effectively, which is able to develop, which is able to flourish deeply. And I feel it should develop past simply the pure laborious safety points into the opposite points. There’s a pure convergence within the financial system, as an example, which I feel each side have to now truly exit and do one thing. And as issues get tougher, I feel they’re extra specializing in this. Already we’re attempting to do a commerce deal, no less than, a Part One commerce deal proper now. However finally I feel we needs to be extra formidable and go for the large one and I feel we are able to do it I actually assume we are able to.

And we should always do it.

We should…

You have been the Nationwide Safety Advisor below Prime Minister Singh. What do you assume are the basic variations within the international view between Singh and Modi? To an American, you understand this administration is motivated by non secular nationalism and being polarized and divisive and preaching concern, not hope. At the least, that’s the impression that the Washington Put up and the New York Instances has. We have to convey the individuals collectively and to search out and to pursue the widespread good

You already know I can’t converse for the Modi administration, or concerning the Modi administration. I haven’t labored with him, or I don’t know him intently. I do know that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had a view of India, which meant that India would do effectively when it was open to the world, and that the U.S. was a pure accomplice on this due to the complementarity. As an economist, he noticed the benefits. In actual fact, I feel he’d finished his PhD thesis on the benefits of commerce and the advantages that overseas commerce truly gave an financial system. He understood how the world labored and I noticed this particularly after the 2008 disaster, within the G20, once I noticed the respect with which different leaders, not simply President (George W.) Bush, however then President Obama who had simply taken over and Gordon Brown of the UK. So once we went to the April London G20 summit, I keep in mind, this was one of many voices that everybody needed to listen to that they hold asking, “What do you assume we needs to be doing?” And you understand, for me, that was crucial as a result of India may converse as an goal observer and mission her personal viewpoint on the similar time.

And I feel that’s essential. Until you’re half, at that stage, until you’re a part of the formation of concepts, you turn into an object of different individuals’s coverage. And the entire level of reworking India, of overseas coverage, is to not be the article, however truly to be the one who’s topic. And also you’re taken off the menu. So I feel that’s the important thing. And that concept of constructing India’s autonomy and position on the planet, I feel that’s an concept which, we have to follow even in laborious occasions like right this moment. And we shouldn’t neglect the fundamentals. We have to hold our eye on the ball, moderately than getting distracted by sideshows and different issues. However, as I stated, I can’t converse for this authorities. I don’t know the way they work, how otherwise. However for me that was an schooling to observe [Manmohan Singh]. You’ll say, “Oh however that’s very professorial.” Sure, however the world is run by concepts finally.

I agree and the beliefs…

Crucial.

I do know you’ve been very a lot concerned with the Indian diaspora. What do you assume the Indian diaspora can do to assist India obtain its fullest potential, in furthering India’s pursuits in america? They could possibly be a wider useful resource in well being care, in improvements, entrepreneurship, philanthropy, schooling and abilities improvement, and in addition creating new firm and creating new jobs. How do you inspire individuals to be concerned, to be engaged with India, to assist India obtain its fullest potential?

Truly took the phrase from my mouth. As a result of I’ve been telling all my associates that what we want for India and the U.S. collectively is to really be engaged on issues like doing one other Inexperienced Revolution, or no less than altering the way in which we deal with our farm produce, convey it to market, and principally modernize agriculture. Schooling is one thing the place we have now a lot in widespread, the place we are able to truly accomplish that. There’s a complete host of issues, science and know-how, and so on. For me the proper bridge is the group, the Diaspora.

You already know the primary time I went to the U.S., in 1962, there have been about 12 000 Indians. That’s it.

There may be much more now!

Yeah, four million. So it is a large useful resource for each nations. I feel it’s additionally good for the diaspora to really kind that sort of bridge, and to encourage that sort of interplay between India and the U.S. as a result of it has… for overseas coverage, it has fast affect, clearly. It’s a pressure multiplier for each nations. But it surely’s greater than that. It additionally offers a bridge for different individuals such as you; don’t neglect the place all of us got here from. Most of us are what two generations, one era away from a village. And I feel we owe it to the others. I’d attraction to the group, to the diaspora; let’s broaden the connection between India and the U.S. Let’s make this our job now.