Build Back Better Luck Next Year

Ah, yes, we lawyers all look back fondly on the day in Constitutional Law class when we learned how an individual senator holds veto power over any given piece of legislation. Oh, you don’t remember that lesson?

Fine, it’s not actually in the Constitution. It’s just the lived reality affecting 332 million people. Although to be fair, a bunch of other supposedly important structural features of government that routinely grind our democracy to a halt are also nowhere to be found in a constitutional analysis (including but not limited to the filibuster, the Supreme Court having nine justices, and the debt ceiling).

Reality is typically more influential than long-forgotten enumerated principles, and this time that means Sen. Joe Manchin effectively holds a veto over President Joe Biden’s so-called Build Back Better plan. Manchin recently announced that he has no intention of backing the approximately $1.8 trillion social spending and climate bill, which puts Democrats shy of the 50 votes they need in the Senate, and effectively condemns the measure to a cold December grave.

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But, while it’s looking unlikely that Build Back Better will pass yet this year, the past few days have foreshadowed a possible resurrection in 2022. For one thing, coal miners, despite their ever-dwindling numbers, seem to be near and dear to Joe Manchin’s heart, and the day after Manchin announced he would not support Build Back Better, the largest coal-mining union in the United States issued a statement supporting the legislation. The union also asked for Manchin to reconsider his opposition. Tax incentives for manufacturers to employ out-of-work coal miners in new facilities, penalties for employers who wrongfully discourage workers from forming unions on the job, and an extension of the fee paid by coal companies to take care of victims of black lung were among the coal miners’ favored Build Back Better policy initiatives.

Manchin also met virtually with his Democratic colleagues in the Senate on December 20 — the first time since publicly announcing his opposition to the Build Back Better plan. In his remarks, Manchin declared that rich taxpayers need to foot more costs, and articulated his support for the Department of Veterans Affairs negotiating drug prices.

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For his part, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in the December 20 meeting that the version of Build Back Better passed in the House would be the starting point for the Senate in debating further changes to the legislation. Schumer promised to push forward for a deal that Senate Democrats — all 50 of them — could support. He has plans for a floor vote in January.

At the very least, Americans have to wait a bit longer for universal pre-kindergarten, expanded health insurance for low-income families, and billions more for clean energy initiatives, among the many other things covered by the Build Back Better plan. The economy may take a hit too.

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Most, though not all, of the proposed legislation would be paid for with new tax increases on corporations and wealthy individuals, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. Even with some deficit spending, though, Build Back Better is projected to be a boon for the economy. Following Manchin’s announced opposition to Build Back Better, Goldman Sachs economists said in a research report, “A failure to pass BBB has negative growth implications.” Given the failure of Build Back Better to pass, Goldman Sachs revised its predicted GDP growth rate downward by a full percentage point for the first quarter of 2022, from 3 percent to 2 percent.

I wouldn’t bet on any pre-Christmas surprises for Build Back Better. But don’t count this signature piece of legislation out in 2022. Maybe Joe Manchin’s heart will grow three sizes over legislators’ holiday break. Or maybe, at the very least, his colleagues will give him more of what he wants so they can finally get something done and move on to other issues.

Jonathan Wolf is a civil litigator and author of Your Debt-Free JD (affiliate link). He has taught legal writing, written for a wide variety of publications, and made it both his business and his pleasure to be financially and scientifically literate. Any views he expresses are probably pure gold, but are nonetheless solely his own and should not be attributed to any organization with which he is affiliated. He wouldn’t want to share the credit anyway. He can be reached at [email protected].

Topics

Build Back Better, Coal Miners, Finance, Government, Joe Manchin, Jonathan Wolf