Predictions For 2023

Yes!

Politico was identifying a list of predictions made in 2022, and one of my predictions from last year made the list!

Unfortunately, it was a list of the worst predictions made in 2022: I predicted that people in Florida would be offended by (1) a high number of deaths from COVID-19 and (2) an anti-abortion candidate in a generally pro-choice state.  After the reversal of Roe (which I correctly anticipated), I guessed that the voters in Florida would send Ron DeSantis to defeat in his gubernatorial reelection campaign. Instead, DeSantis won in a landslide.

I have to admit, this wasn’t my finest hour.

But predictions made by Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Tucker Carlson, and Paul Krugman also made Politico’s list of stinkers, so at least I was in good company.

Anyway, if you’re ready to keep reading my predictions, I’m ready to keep writing ’em. Here are my three predictions for 2023.

First, Donald Trump will be indicted, and violence will ensue.

The first part is easy: Too many prosecutors are investigating Trump’s suspicious activities in too many places for Trump to dodge all of the bullets. Maybe it’s Georgia, maybe it’s the documents at Mar-a-Lago, maybe it’s fomenting an insurrection in D.C., maybe it’s something else. But Trump is getting indicted in 2023.

You heard it here ninety-fourth.

I’ll add an obvious wrinkle: After Trump is indicted, there will be violence.

Trump’s supporters have shown that they will be violent. Trump has fomented violence in the past. Trump is already trying to foment violence to avoid getting indicted. And Trump encouraged people to sack the Capitol building when he was at risk only of being thrown out of the presidency; imagine what Trump will do if he’s at risk of being thrown behind bars.

Trump will be indicted, and there will be violence.

Here’s my second prediction for 2023: At least one of the defamation lawsuits now pending against conservatives or conservative news organizations will result in a plaintiff’s verdict. The plaintiffs’ verdicts in the recent lawsuits against Alex Jones have shown that juries will find liability when the facts demonstrate that a conservative pundit recklessly disregarded the truth. There will be similar results in 2023.

Dominion Voting Systems has sued Fox News (and its parent company, Fox Corp.) complaining about Fox’s reporting about Dominion’s voting machines. The evidence appears to support Dominion’s claims. Dominion has sued One America News Network on similar grounds.

Dominion has also sued Mike Lindell (the MyPillow guy), Rudy Giuliani, and Sydney Powell on somewhat similar claims. Smartmatic, another voting machine company, has filed defamation claims against broadcasters and others. And Georgia election workers have sued Giuliani for falsely claiming that they committed election fraud. There’s a long list of pending defamation cases arising out of the 2020 elections.

I know that some of these cases won’t be set for trial in 2023. I know that other cases will settle. But I’ll go out on a limb here: At least one of the defamation cases against a conservative or a conservative news organization will result in a plaintiff’s verdict in 2023.

Hey: How wrong can I be with that one? (And how likely is it that Politico would put me on a list of crappy predictions for two years in a row? I think I’m safe.)

Here’s my third, and last, prediction for the year: Downtown office real estate will undergo a transformation that starts in 2023.

A piece of this prediction is obvious: Corporations and law firms have realized that working from an office full-time is both unnecessary and costly. There’s no reason to do it, and firms won’t.

Vacancy rates for downtown office space are already high. Occupancy rates are protected somewhat by the fact that law firms (and others) tend to sign long-term leases, and those leases will expire only gradually over the coming years.

But some of that office space will eventually have to be put to other uses. The question is: What use? It’s quite expensive to convert downtown office buildings into apartments: the plumbing is all wrong, and office buildings frequently have a lot of interior space and relatively few windows, so conversion is difficult. But something has to happen with that space, and I predict that the change will begin in 2023.

(This prediction of course doesn’t apply to warehouse space, or real estate other than offices. My crystal ball there is much too cloudy.)

So those are my three predictions for 2023. Let’s hope I don’t look too silly at this time in 2024. And I have one final thought — which is not a prediction, but a wish — for the coming year: I hope your 2023 is a happy and healthy one.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].

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2023, Biglaw, COVID-19, In-House Counsel, Mark Herrmann, Predictions