Was Supreme Court term a ‘reversion to the mean’? Statistics show some moderation

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Was Supreme Court term a ‘reversion to…

U.S. Supreme Court Was Supreme Court term a ‘reversion to the mean’? Statistics show some moderation

By Debra Cassens Weiss

July 13, 2023, 10:30 am CDT

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One indication of a less conservative Supreme Court this term than what court watchers had predicted was how well the American Civil Liberties Union fared.

The ACLU filed briefs in 18 argued cases and was on the winning side in 11 of them, the New York Times reports.

However, ACLU national legal director David Cole noted that some losses were big; decisions on affirmative action and gay rights were “unprecedented setbacks for equality.”

“But beyond that,” Cole told the newspaper, “civil liberties and civil rights fared surprisingly well this term—far better than anyone predicted.” He noted “rights-protective results” in cases involving redistricting, Native American rights, discrimination, prisoners’ access to court, social media, free speech and immigration enforcement.

“What we saw,” he said, “was a reversion to the mean.”

The New York Times spoke with other experts who said Chief Justice John Roberts appeared to win some victories in his incremental approach to legal change. Statistics also point to Roberts’ influence and a slightly more restrained court this term than last.

Among the experts compiling the statistics are lawyer and political scientist Adam Feldman at Empirical SCOTUS and a trio of academics, University of Southern California law professor Lee Epstein, Washington University at St. Louis chancellor Andrew D. Martin and Emory University law professor Kevin Quinn. Their findings include:

• The court’s three liberal justices were in the majority more often this term than Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas, who are the most conservative. (The New York Times)

• The percentage of unanimous decisions was 47%, compared to 28% last term. (The New York Times)

• Among decisions that could classified as liberal or conservative, excluding cases where the cases were “non-specifiable,” the percentage of liberal decisions was 53%, compared to 37% last term. (Epstein, Martin and Quinn)

• Justice Brett Kavanaugh was tops for time in the majority, at 96%. Kavanaugh was followed by Chief Justice John Roberts, in the majority 95% of the time, and by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, in the majority 91% of the time. In divided cases decided by signed opinions, Kavanaugh was in the majority 90% of the time, followed by Roberts at 86%. (Empirical SCOTUS, the New York Times)

• The court’s most conservative justice this term was Samuel Alito, according to his preliminary “Martin-Quinn score,” a rating developed by Martin and Quinn. The court’s most liberal justice was Sonia Sotomayor. (Axios)

• Among the court’s three-member liberal bloc, Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson was the court’s most centrist. (Axios)

• As a group, conservatives were in the majority in 73% of divided decisions, compared to 64% for the court’s liberals. (The New York Times)

• The number of 6-3 decisions this term was 11, but there was a six-justice majority in 12 cases because Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson didn’t participate in one of them. Last term there were 14 decisions decided by a 6-3 vote. (Empirical SCOTUS)

• Three combinations of justices voted together 95% of the time. They are Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Justices Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, and Justices Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson. (Empircal SCOTUS)

• The longest opinions this term were the dissents by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, which averaged more than 9,000 words (excluding words in footnotes and appendixes. (Empirical SCOTUS)

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